You Know, And That

What is a prospect?

Fri, 19 Aug 2011 09:00:05 -0500

For some reason the topic of “what is a prospect?” has come up in a few of my conversations recently, so here’s my take.

I define a prospect as someone, who without any significant MLB playing time at present, could impact an MLB team in the future.

Minor leaguers who project as, or could potentially be, competent players have a lot of value. They don’t need to have impact potential to make an impact. Projectable competence is a good thing, and turns a guy into a prospect for me.

A prospect doesn’t need to be a guy who could potentially hit .300/.400/.500 or throw 95 MPH on the black. Lots of guys in MLB do neither of those things, though I will concede that it is easier to project a guy with good tools than one without. But neither tools nor production are make or break in terms of what makes a prospect.

A few quick Brewers draft notes

Fri, 12 Aug 2011 10:29:43 -0500

While I have a minute, a few Brewers draft notes…

The signing deadline for the June draft picks, as you probably know, is the end of the day on Monday.
If I had to put a probability on the Brewers signing both of their 1st round picks (Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley), I’d say 98%.
If I had to guess which one of those two is more likely to not sign, I’d say Jungmann. The Brewers have to sign Bradley. He was picked as compensation for not signing first round pick Dylan Covey last year. If they don’t sign Bradley, they lose the pick and receive no further draft compensation.
I’m not trying to say I don’t think Jungmann won’t sign, although I would be much less heartbroken if the Brewers failed to sign him as opposed to Bradley. If Jungmann didn’t sign, the Brewers would get the 13th overall pick next year.
Unsigned 12th round pick Andrew Cain, a corner OF from UNC-Wilmington, should have been a relatively easy sign for the Brewers, but that never happened and he’s been absent from the summer baseball circuit. Don’t know what’s going on there.
Unsigned 13th round pick Mallex Smith, a center fielder from Rickards HS in Tallahassee, FL, has passed over an offer from Florida State to commit to Sante Fe JC (located in Gainsville, not New Mexico). Playing at Santa Fe makes him eligible for the 2012 draft if he doesn’t sign with the Brewers by Monday night. It’s been said that Smith is “dead set” on going pro, and I think the Brewers have a decent chance to sign him.
Unsigned 16th and 18th round picks, LHP Carlos Rodon and SS Chris McFarland, are both exciting high school talents that will command a price well over the recommended slot value to sign. Both are still in play for the Brewers and both would be huge gets for the system. Rodon hails from North Carolina and is a big recruit for North Carolina State. McFarland is from Texas has a strong commitment to Rice. Both of their decisions will come down to the wire on Monday.

The Keepers of the Lighting

Thu, 11 Aug 2011 10:38:00 -0500

The Cardinals may be the keepers of the etiquette of baseball, the bastions of how the game should be played, and they sure are sensitive to even the tiniest changes in light. They are truly the low-light hawks of baseball. They demand excellence in all areas, including bulb wattage. LaRussa says that when his sunglasses are on, he better be God-damned able to see everything, hammered or not.

Good thing Brewers fans exist. We do the dirty work. We check your lighting. We go to your games. We watch our team beat your team.

A Brief Brewers Baserunning Update

Tue, 02 Aug 2011 14:54:19 -0500

If you recall, I made my initial foray into Brewers blogging way back when (er, in late May) with a piece on baserunning. I promised I’d update it later in the season. It’s later. Let’s update it.

UBR, as you will recall, is FanGraphs’ way of measuring the effect of the running game sans stolen base data. RAR stands for “runs above replacement” and 10 RAR is equal to 1 extra win above replacement, or WAR.

In May, the Brewers’ UBR was -2.8 RAR. Fifth worst in MLB, third worst in the NL.
Now, the Brewers’ UBR is -4.9 RAR. That’s sixth worst in MLB, still third worst in the NL.

The running game (again, sans stolen base stuff) has basically treaded water in the depths of majors.

On to stolen bases.

In May, the Brewers’ stolen base success rate was 80% and worth about 2 RAR.
Now, the Brewers’ stolen base success rate is 74% and worth about 1.7 RAR.

Adding them together:

In May, the Brewers’ UBR+SB was -0.8 RAR, a loss of a little less than a tenth of a win.
Now, the Brewers’ UBR+SB is -3.2 RAR, about a third of a loss.

Small ball, right?

As was the case in May, the two people primarily responsible for the team’s poor showing in UBR are Prince Fielder and Casey McGehee. Back then their UBRs were worth -6 RAR, and now they’ve slipped to -9.6 RAR, almost a full win below replacement. Add in McGehee’s two caught stealings (Fielder has not attempted a stolen base this year), and the RAR between those two slips to -10.5, more than a win below replacement.

The good news you can take out of that is the rest of the team has been pretty successful in the baserunning department, with an aggregate UBR+SB of 7.3 RAR. That would be good enough to land in the top five teams in MLB.

As I mentioned, baserunning is not a huge component of value in baseball. Where its marginal difference can matter is in tight races, where one team strongly outperforms the other. It’s unlikely, though possible, that baserunning will tip the balance in the NL Central this year.

The Cardinals’ UBR+SB is currently -1.3 RAR. It is negative due to a poor stolen base success rate. A little less than 2 runs better than the Brewers, a fifth of a win. They have a 3.9 RAR in UBR alone.
The Reds’ UBR+SB is currently 7.2 RAR, which is 10.4 RAR better than the Brewers. A full win and then some. The Reds, like the Cardinals, have their UBR dragged down by a poor showing in the stolen base department. They have a 11.6 RAR in UBR alone.
The Pirates’ UBR+SB is currently -6.7 RAR, a third of a win worse than the Brewers. They have both negative UBR and stolen base value.

If you’re interested, the Brewers’ team sorted by UBR (called Bsr for some reason on the chart) for everyone that has a UBR value:

Two last things I want to point out. When I say “x has 3.4 RAR” that these are all best guesses by the people who put the statistic together. It’s impossible to know the true value of these things. This is just the best (public) stuff we have to work with.

Finally, the stolen base RAR calculation I used (.19 runs for a SB, -.46 runs for a CS) is from Tom Tango, but using data from the 1999-2002 seasons. The data may well be different for 2011 baseball, so those run values may be slightly off. I doubt the RAR calculations are way off, but if they are, mea culpa.

Plush makes it rain

Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:31:56 -0500

We went to the Brewers-Twins game at Target Field three weeks ago today, and naturally I haven’t put up any photos yet. No, I did not do the economy 3-week development service at Walgreens. Yes, I only took a few because my phone was dying. But as long as I have a blog, might as well photoblog my photos.

Pre-game (that’s me, or is it Tony???)

A few hours later, still pre-game:

And finally… game, not too long before Prince had that ball go through his legs:

Two second movie!

About Carlos Gomez' broken clavicle

Thu, 21 Jul 2011 11:10:00 -0500

Just a few brief words on broken clavicles to maybe clear up a little confusion, and I preface these words by admitting that I have a degree in accounting, not medicine.

Carlos Gomez’ broken left clavicle will keep him out of action from anywhere between 4 weeks and 12 or more weeks, depending on the nature and severity of the break. The clavicle, also known as the collar bone, connects the shoulder blade to the chest, pivoting on either end. It is more commonly regarded as a shoulder injury due to the much more active nature of the shoulder as opposed to the chest.

Some trivia: the clavicle is the only horizontal bone in the body. You owe me $1 if this comes up at a bar.

Most clavicle injuries are treated by putting the arm/shoulder in a sling to allow the bone to heal naturally. Clavicle surgery is very rare (though slightly more common in athletes), and is primarily used to re-set the bone when there is a severe or compound break. Surgery increases recovery time. If Gomez needs surgery, he’s almost certainly done for the year.

As many of you know, Charles Woodson broke his left clavicle during the Packers’ Super Bowl XLV win. He did not require surgery.

If Gomez is a Pujolsian healer, his broken clavicle could heal within four weeks and after going on a rehab assignment, could conceivably be back by very late August. What’s more likely is that the Brewers will hope Gomez returns sometime in September, or for the playoffs.

Gomez will likely not be placed on the 60-day DL. While that would not end his season, there’s a possibility he could be ready before 60 days are up. He will go on the 15-day DL if there’s any chance of a 2011 return. The Brewers will only put him on the 60-day DL if they think he’s done for the year.

Why the bleep is Khris Davis still in Brevard County?

Wed, 13 Jul 2011 16:42:30 -0500

I’ll make this pretty short. Khris Davis should be in Huntsville.

Here are the total number of qualified batters in the high-A Florida State League with an OPS of greater than 900:

That’s one… two… three guys and the third guy, Brewers farmhand Brock Kjeldgaard, is no longer in the league. He was promoted to the AA club in Huntsville a few weeks ago.

Which means that Khris Davis’ 990 OPS is more than 100 points higher than all but one other qualified batter in the league. He is decimating the baseball in a league where it’s pretty tough to decimate the baseball. The Florida State League is really, really tough on batters. Especially right-handed batters. Khris Davis is right-handed.

Why is he still in Brevard County? I have no idea. Scouts like his bat, even though he’s a little old for the league (he’s 23) to be a true prospect. He doesn’t have a great arm in left field, but he plays there competently. If he was moved to first base (the Brewers already have someone in left field for the foreseeable future), he could probably develop into an above average defender there.

Davis isn’t blocked by anyone in Huntsville. He’s a much better big league hitting prospect than either current Huntsville first bagger Sean Halton or either of the guys (Lee Haydel & Kjeldgaard) that regularly play left field for the Stars.

A common rule of thumb is that it should take college players 1500 minor league plate appearances to get ready for the big leagues, if they’re ever going to get ready and contribute much. Most of those plate appearances should be in AA and AAA. Davis now has 932 collectively dominant pro plate appearances below AA under his belt. He’s well past due for a promotion.

Promote the guy already. Move him to first base. Do something, Reid Nichols. Please?

The Hours; Or, the Brewers screw with me on Father's Day

Thu, 30 Jun 2011 10:21:00 -0500

As you may or may not know, I don’t live in Milwaukee. I am a Brewers fan stranded in the Twin Cities of Minnesota, getting hit by the same rain drops that hit the Target Field turf and postpone Twins losses for another day. I make the trip down to Milwaukee a few times a year. The trip usually has something to do with the family I have that lives in southern Wisconsin. I actually haven’t been to a game at Miller Park since the Brewers’ one playoff win in 2008. C’est la vie.

When I do make it down to Milwaukee, I like to stop by Miller Park. If nothing else, to just look at it. To have my daughter and son look at it. (“This is where daddy’s team plays baseball.”) Ideally, the team store will be open and I can usually coax my wife into letting us stop and buy something. I lose hats all the time. Miller Park is a good excuse to buy a hat.

And there we were a week and a half ago, in Milwaukee. On Father’s Day. Perfect storm for a stop by Miller Park. I wonder what hats they have? I check out the Brewers’ website, and I find this:

Sunday, 11 to 4. We’re past March, right? In luck!

No such luck.

We arrived at Miller Park around noon. There was a pretty decent line at the ticket window, but when we went to the doors for the Team Store by Majestic - locked. Lights off. I called the number for “more information” and was informed via recorded voice that the store was closed on Sundays.

Closed just for Father’s Day, I thought? Odd that they’d close on the one day a year that a dad can pretty much do what he wants, which may well include some baseball shopping. Did I not listen to the recording right? Called again. Yep… no, just closed on Sundays.

Who goes shopping on Sundays, anyway?

Called again just now to make 3x sure. Yep.

Might want to fix the website, guys. Happy Father’s Day.

A few thoughts from last night's Sounds game

Mon, 27 Jun 2011 09:24:00 -0500

I watched most of the Nashville Sounds game last night. Thoughts:

I haven’t been overly impressed with Amaury Rivas’ change-up the half-dozen or so times I’ve seen him pitch this year. Don’t get me wrong… it’s a good pitch for him, just nothing that will strike batters out in the big leagues (or in AAA, for that matter). His arm action for it is good. It’s possible tinkering with the grip this offseason could yield some extra movement that results in more swings and misses. And maybe he’s just been off with it when I’ve seen him. I’ve heard glowing reviews about it in the past.

He was throwing many more curves/sliders, and (I think) 4-seam fastballs last night. A lot is made of the desire for pitchers to induce ground balls, and his 2-seamer does have pretty good dip when it’s on. However, he seems to locate his 4-seamer a lot better and especially when the 4-seam is paired with his changeup, it’s the better fastball. Trying to get Rivas to be a ground ball pitcher when he has more of fly ball pitcher skill set, is, well, you know the peg and hole adage. I’d like to see him spot up the 4-seam a little more and work off of the change-up. His breaking stuff is ok, occasionally has depth, and are serviceable big league pitches. They could be more effective, again, off the harder fastball.

And all yielding fewer ground balls. The horror! But better results.

Eric Farris still has a bad arm for shortstop, but his throwing motion was somewhat better last night than I’ve seen previously. Although he had a few double-pumps, he mostly got the ball off quickly, which he needs to do to have any shot at an even average runner. There’s an outside chance he can turn into a Ryan Theriot-ish shortstop that has to play in because of his arm. I’d still like to see the Brewers give Farris the chance to play center field and third base to really improve his versatility.

Mat Gamel looked better at first base, and even made a nice pick on a ball low and to his right (thrown by Farris). I’ve said it time and time again - he has the tools to be a plus first baseman on defense. Maybe he’s truly bought into the position switch and has gotten the reps to start to feel comfortable there.

And yes, he hit his 18th home run last night. Dude can hit. At this point, the Brewers would be nuts not to give him an inside shot at the first base job next year.

Saito looked good. Bring him up.

One more thing about Greinke's ERA and K rate

Wed, 22 Jun 2011 21:04:00 -0500

Perhaps you read my story last weekend over at Disciples of Uecker on big strikeout pitchers and their ERAs.

That story was based on a reply of mine in a thread at Brewerfan, linked right there, about whether or not we should be worried about Greinke’s lofty ERA (which is a little less lofty after his last start).

A couple people pointed out to me that I should have used K/PA rather than K/9 for the exercise, as K/9 inflates the K rate if a pitcher faces a lot of batters (i.e., has more than his fair share of long innings.) He’ll have more chances at a strikeout.

Here were the ERA results from K/9:

Mean=3.36; Mid=3.41; Max=4.66; Min=2.48; Standard deviation=+/- .54

And now the ERA results using K/PA:

Mean=3.25; Mid=3.25; Max=4.66; Min=2.16; Standard deviation=+/- .57

In other words, about the same thing, or even more rosy.

Look, if Greinke keeps striking out guys at the rate he is, the likelihood of him finishing with an ERA even close to what it is now is very low.

That’s why I’m not worried.

Catagorization: 7 Game Road Trips

Sun, 19 Jun 2011 10:00:06 -0500

It is said that good teams win 2 of 3 at home and go .500 on the road. That “strategy” will get your team to 94-95 wins and more often than not, the playoffs. I agree that playing as close as possible to .500 on the road is desirable, if not always attainable, for a playoff-hopeful team.

So what of the odd-numbered road trip? You can’t go .500, so it’s win or lose. When the Brewers go out for 7 games, these are the post-trip descriptors I would use when they come home:

7-0: Elation beyond description; The Venus de Milo of road trips.
6-1: Phenomenal; A true accomplishment.
5-2: Wonderful; Like J.J. Hardy’s eyes.
4-3: Better than expected; A nice swing.
3-4: Could have been better, could have been worse; Miller Lite.
2-5: Disappointing, but not the end of the world; Seasons 15-22 of The Simpsons.
1-6: Terrible… what the hell happened?; Turd blossom.
0-7: Disaster, and someone’s gonna get fired; The Nickleback of road trips.

Hopes and Expectations and Zack Greinke

Sat, 18 Jun 2011 01:45:54 -0500

In the debate about how Zack Greinke has pitched, there seems to be some conflation between the terms “hope” and “expect.” It is important to use the two terms distinctly because there is a significant difference.

I’m sure that most Brewers fans hoped Greinke would have a better ERA than 5.23 to this point in the season. I sure hoped he would, and I hope that his ERA improves. I am hopeful that it will.

Personally, I hope that our pitchers go out and throw shutouts every time. That would be awesome. Hope is a wonderful emotion that brightens the human experience.

Now to say that you expected Zack Greinke to be better than this, well…

Expecting things when there are small samples involved will often disappoint you, especially if your expectations are too narrow. And yes, make no mistake, the 53.1 inning that Greinke has pitched this year are a small sample as it relates to a his true talent level.

It is very difficult, at best, to “expect” anything out of any pitcher for 50 random innings to begin a season. Expectation implies reason and reason is lost to the variance in small samples. This is part of the reason that relief pitchers are so hard to rely upon year over year. Sure, better pitchers will tend to pitch better in general, but plenty of awesome pitchers have produced poor results (at least via ERA) at the beginning of the year, or in any 50 random innings.

I did not expect Greinke to repeat his Cy Young caliber season. I did not expect Greinke to injure himself in a pickup basketball game. I did not expect him to have a 70:9 K/BB ratio and certainly did not expect him to have that K/BB ratio paired with a 5.23 ERA. I did not have any expectations about where he would be after 9 starts, or 7 starts, or 3 starts and I do not have any precise further expectations about where he will be after 10 starts, 11 starts, 14.5 starts or 40 starts into his Brewers career.

If I have any expectation about Greinke it’s that, if he is healthy, that he will be a capable and somewhere above average pitcher over the long term. Where long term means, at least the length of his current contract. I can’t say whether or not he’s met that expectation yet because he’s not anywhere close to meeting my timeline requirement. Still a ways to go.

Which is not to say you couldn’t have had specific expectations about Greinke after 9 starts. You’re certainly free to do what you want. But any narrow expectation you’d make about such a brief time period is almost completely a shot in the dark. I choose to stand on the firmer ground of more data.

What mustard uniform hath wrought

Sat, 11 Jun 2011 21:00:20 -0500

WHOA:

I tuned into tonight’s game to see that uniform. That was unexpected.

It’s not just the mustard yellow top and it’s definitely not the “Cerveceros” that make it wrong, it’s the whole package. Standard white pants with that top? C’mon, if you’re going with pizazz, go all the way! Yellow pants!

But seriously, if I were in charge of coming up with Brewers uniforms, this is one combination I would have come up with after too much Night Train. These look like nightmare pajamas.

Avert your eyes:

I completely blew my Brewers draft pick guesses and I don't care

Fri, 10 Jun 2011 16:57:09 -0500

Early last week I took a stab at handicapping who the Brewers would pick in the first round of the draft this year. If you want to reminisce, check out Disciples of Uecker for the 12th pick guess and 15th pick guess.

Suffice it to say, I wasn’t close.

But it doesn’t bother me at all. Why?

I am 100% positive that if either Lindor or Baez would have fallen to the Brewers at 12, we’d have one of those two guys in our system. The Brewers would have snatched them up without hesitation. Such that it happened, they both went before the Brewers’ pick. I thought Sonny Gray was the backup plan. This was a relatively informed guess, as I had some knowledge that the Brewers liked him.

Turns out, not so much. They passed Gray over twice in selecting Jungmann and Bradley. Gray kept sliding to 18, where the A’s took him. He immediately became one of the best “value” selections of first round, as told by the analysts who talk about these things. So it goes.

Truth be told, I like Gray as a prospect more than Jungmann or Bradley, so I was personally disappointed. I also wasn’t a huge fan of Jungmann before the draft, so maybe I gave him short shrift in my handicapping. And by maybe, I mean probably. Mea culpa. But it does show that it’s impossible to be completely impartial about these things.

Basically what I got wrong was the Brewers’ interest in Sonny Gray and Taylor Jungmann. Too high, too low. Oh, well.

We’ll try again next year.

And for what it’s worth, after studying Jungmann and Bradley in more detail since the draft, I’ve grown more enamored with both. I will hope for the best, of course.

I’ll also keep an eye on Sonny Gray.

Have An Early Lunch, Watch a Pre-Draft Workout

Fri, 03 Jun 2011 13:48:13 -0500

The Brewers’ annual pre-draft workout takes place tomorrow, Saturday the 4th at Miller Park. This is a workout for a large number of amateur players, both high school and college level, that the Brewers have under consideration for selection in next week’s amateur draft.

Although I don’t have an exact begin/end time for you, I can tell you that if you shoot for an early lunch at Friday’s Front Row Grill inside the park - the restaurant opens at 11 am - you’re likely to see plenty of players being worked out on the field below.

There probably won’t be anyone there that the Brewers are thinking about taking at the 12th or 15th picks of the first round, but we’ve seen a number of 2nd rounders attend the workout in previous years.

The Architecture of Baseball

Fri, 03 Jun 2011 09:39:00 -0500

The Baseball Project

A hat tip to Brewerfan member “flosses like fossas” for finding this article. It’s not really about baseball, per se. It’s about designing a process flow diagram to describe information architecture.

But it’s a process flow diagram about baseball.

I Just Broke Some Draft News

Thu, 02 Jun 2011 16:03:37 -0500

If there’s anyone that reads this that doesn’t read Disciples of Uecker, read this:

I break Brewers draft news about Javier Baez.

The Reds Beat Us Again, But Who Cares? Milton Gomez Pitched!

Wed, 01 Jun 2011 21:22:00 -0500

We lost to the Reds again, in typical gut-punch style. Let’s not let Kam Loe face that Votto guy again, eh?

Anyway, the big Brewers news tonight is that a young Dominican righty that the club gave big bucks (Dominican pesos?) to last July made his pro debut for the Brewers’ Dominican Summer League team. Brewers Internet community, meet Milton Gomez.

The Brewers gave then 16-year-old Milton Gomez $350,000 last July and the right-handed pitcher made his debut earlier today to good results.

The now 17-year-old went 6 innings, allowing 6 hits, 0 earned runs, and struck out 7 while walking none. In also-good news, all of his non-K outs were recorded via ground out or line out. Power sinker, perhaps?

Gomez features a low 90’s fastball with big velocity upside, a curve that’s already decent and projects to be a plus pitch, as well as a changeup that is still in the incubation process.

Though he will be stuck in relative anonymity in the Dominican Summer League this year, we might be hearing a lot about Milton Gomez in the relatively near future.

Screw you, Votto.

10 Quick Things: Yuniesky Betancourt

Tue, 31 May 2011 14:21:00 -0500

Yuniesky Betancourt…

has the second highest walk rate and highest strikeout rate of his career this year for Milwaukee, but…
is still only walking 4.2% of the time, and still only striking out 11.8% of the time, which…
along with his 3 home runs, gives him a 3TO (Three True Outcomes) percentage on the year of 16.7%, ergo…
Russell Branyan hates him and what he stands for, especially because…
3 of Betancourt’s 8 walks have been intentional…
which makes me wonder if the three managers who intentionally walked him - Fredi Gonzalez, Bud Black & Bruce Bochy - are insane, as…
Betancourt did not take a non-intentional walk between 4/29 and 5/21, which means…
he went 70 plate appearances without working a walk, and since…
he has only been hit by one pitch this year, I think…
Yuni should lean into more pitches.

Baserunning, Parts 2-12

Fri, 27 May 2011 13:55:00 -0500

I still have a few little pieces of information rattling around my brain about baserunning. So here’s a blog with no plot through-line, just some randomly associated scattershot, bullet-pointed:

Neither the word “baserunner” nor “baserunning” are in the dictionaries I looked at. “Base runner” or “base runnng” - hyphenated if you want - seem to be the “correct” spelling. However, the one word truncation used above and throughout my previous blog on the subject also seem to be commonly used. I mean, if it’s on Wikipedia…
I don’t want to overemphasize the effect that baserunning has on the game. I feel I may have done that by dedicating 1700 words to it on Tuesday. The Brewers finished last season with a -6.4 UBR. That means their non-stolen base related base running cost them 6.4 RAR (runs above replacement) by the UBR metric. 6.4 runs is .64 wins, again using the 10 run rule. That’s barely anything over the course of a whole season. It didn’t help, certainly, but it didn’t hurt that much either.
The very best UBR team last season, the Rays, finished with 23.2 RAR. About 2.3 wins of helpfulness. The very worst UBR team last season, the Mariners (they sucked at something? no way!), came in a -13.4 RAR, -1.3 wins. A 3.66 win spread between best and worst is significant, especially if they were in the same division, but many other things are much more significant.
The 2009 spread between worst (Royals) and best (Twins - remember when they did the little things? oh, they’re so precious) was 3.62 wins. Divisional opponents, so it is slightly more interesting. Would have been even more interesting if the Twins hadn’t beaten the Royals by 27 games in the standings.
Back one last year… 2008, the worst (White Sox) and the best (Twins) (OMG!) saw UBR separate them by 3.34 wins. Since the Twins, who won the division that year, only beat the Sox by 7 games, baserunning became a bit more important in that case, but still not a tide-turner.
I went back to 2002 (as far as the data goes) and in short, it looks reasonable to assume that the best and worst baserunning teams will usually be separated by 2.5-4.5 wins due to UBR.
The Brewers have had the worst team UBR in the league twice, in 2002 and 2003.
The Brewers had above average (and above 0) team UBRs from 2005-2008. They were the 4th best baserunning team in baseball during that time span. I’m at a cursory loss to explain why, or what’s changed, besides Ned Yost. Davey Nelson was the baserunning coach from ‘03 to ‘06. Nick Leyva and Ed Sedar were co-baserunning coaches in ‘07 and Sedar became sole baseunning coach in ‘08, which he still is today.
Prince Fielder, who has the 3rd-worst UBR in baseball since the beginning of 2005, has been worth -24.9 RAR during that time. A little less than -3 wins. Over roughly 5.5 seasons of playing time for Prince, that’s under negative half a win per season. It drains on his value for sure, but not as much as you may think.
Ryan Braun, the Brewers’ best baserunner since 2007 by UBR, has produced 12.2 RAR during his time in the big leagues. That’s about 3 runs a season, a little over a win during his career. Yawn. At least he’s not bad.
The best UBR in a single season was Juan Pierre’s 9.4 RAR in 2003. The worst was Kendrys Morales’ -11.4 RAR in 2009. He and Tony Pena (‘07, -10.8 RAR) are the only two guys since 2002 to have lost their team a whole win with the value of their individual running game.

I’ll come back and look at how the Brewers are doing with their baserunning around the All Star break, not that I’m expecting a whole lot of movement.

All the UBR stats were pulled from various stats pages at FanGraphs. If you haven’t looked at FanGraphs yet, you’re nuts.